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RECOFTC's Blog for People and Forests

RECOFTC’s Ahmad Dhiaulhaq, Forest Conflict and Governance Researcher, shares highlights from a recent paper on “Predicting Future Conflict under REDD+ Implementation,” the product of a collaboration between RECOFTC – The Center for People and Forests and Forest Action Nepal.

Effects of land-grabbing Effects of land-grabbing. Photograph source: Mak Remissa/EPA, via The Guardian

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) as a climate change mitigation instrument is an attractive way for developed countries to achieve their emission reduction targets, as well as an incentive for developing countries to sustainably manage their forests. While this may seem like a tidy win-win situation, it’s quite a bit more complicated than that. The ongoing discussions have highlighted the risks (e.g. conflict), as well as the opportunities (e.g. cooperation), that are inevitably part of REDD+ implementation.

Conflict might arise because REDD+ is expected to create new zoning regimes, which in turn result in more restrictions to forest access, overlap with…

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patel et al 2013
With the current complexity of issues facing forest and land management, the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiative comes with significant risks, including conflict.
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While the exact nature and shape of conflict in REDD+ implementation is difficult to pinpoint, RECOFTC-The Center for People and Forests’ recent study aims to build a preliminary predictive framework to identify possible sources of impairment that may result in conflict over management of forests and natural resources, including REDD+. The framework was developed from an extensive literature review and was tested in three REDD+ pilot project sites in Nepal.
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The results indicate that most of the sources of impairment are present in all study sites, particularly issues relating to benefit sharing, which have been main drivers of conflict prior to REDD+. While we found that the application of the framework has been useful in the Nepalese context, there are some limitations in its scope and precision.
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Nonetheless, this study points to important implications with regards to REDD+ implementation and conflict management that can be useful for policy makers and practitioners involved in REDD+ strategy designs, as well as other areas of forest management involving outsiders and communities.
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Citation:
Patel, T.; Dhiaulhaq, A.; Gritten, D.; Yasmi, Y.; De Bruyn, T.; Paudel, N.S.; Luintel, H.; Khatri, D.B.; Silori, C.; Suzuki, R. Predicting Future Conflict under REDD+ Implementation. Forests 20134, 343-363.
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Full text can be downloaded from here
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